7 Tech Predictions for 2022
Though it's a year shy of the big decade marker, 2019 looks to exist one of the most exciting and most important years for the tech industry in some time. Thank you to the upcoming launch of some critical new technologies, including 5G and foldable displays, besides as critical enhancements in on-device AI, personal robotics, and other exciting areas, there's a palpable sense of expectation for the new year's day that we haven't felt for a while.
Plus, 2018 ended up existence a pretty tough year for several large tech companies, so there are as well a lot of folks who want to milk shake the old year off and swoop headfirst into an exciting hereafter. With that spirit in heed, here'southward my take on some of what I expect to be the biggest trends and most of import developments in 2019.
Prediction 1: Foldable Phones Will Outsell 5G Phones
At this betoken, everyone knows that 2019 will see the "official" debut of two very exciting technological developments in the mobile globe: foldable displays and smartphones equipped with 5G modems. Several vendors and carriers have already appear these devices, so now it's just a question of when and how many.
Non everyone realizes, however, that the two technologies won't necessarily come manus-in-hand this year: we will see 5G-enabled phones and we will come across smartphones with foldable displays. As of even so, it's not articulate that we'll come across devices that comprise both capabilities in calendar year 2019. Eventually, of course, nosotros will, but the challenges in bringing each of these cut-edge technologies to the mass market propose that some devices volition include one or the other. (To be clear, still, the vast bulk of smartphones sold in 2019 volition accept neither an integrated 5G modem nor a foldable display—high prices for both technologies volition limit their impact this year.)
In the near-term, I'1000 predicting that foldable display-based phones volition be the winner over 5G-equipped phones, because the impact that these bendable screens volition have on device usability and grade cistron are so compelling that I believe consumers will be willing to forgo the potential 5G speed boost. Plus, given concerns virtually pricing for 5G data plans, limited initial 5G coverage, and the confusing (and, bluntly, misleading) claims being made by some US carriers about their "versions" of 5G, I believe consumers volition limit their adoption of 5G until more of these issues become articulate. Foldable phones on the other hand—while likely to be expensive—volition offer a very clear value benefit that I believe consumers will detect even more compelling.
Prediction two: Game Streaming Services Go Mainstream
In a year when there'due south going to be a keen deal of attention placed on new entrants to the video streaming market (Apple, Disney, Time Warner, etc.), the surprise breakout winner in cloud-based entertainment in 2019 could actually be game streaming services, such as Microsoft's Project xCloud (based on its Xbox gaming platform) and other possible entrants.
The idea with game streaming is to enable people to play tiptop-tier games across a wide range of both older and newer PCs, smartphones, and other devices. Given the tremendous growth in PC and mobile gaming, along with the rise in popularity of eSports, the consumer market place is primed for a service (or two) that would allow gamers to play popular high-quality gaming titles beyond a wide range of dissimilar device types and platforms.
Of course, game streaming isn't a new concept, and in that location have been several failed attempts in the past. The challenge is delivering a timely, engaging experience in the often-unpredictable world of cloud-driven connectivity. Information technology'southward an extraordinarily difficult technical task that requires lag-free responsiveness and high-quality visuals packaged together in an piece of cake-to-employ service that consumers would be willing to pay for.
Thankfully, a number of important technological advancements are coming together to make this at present possible, including improvements in overall connectivity via WiFi (such equally with WiFi6) and wide area cellular networks (and 5G should improve things fifty-fifty more). In addition, there's been widespread adoption and optimization of GPUs in deject-based servers. Most importantly, however, are software advancements that can enable technologies like split or collaborative rendering (where some work is done on the cloud and some on the local device), too as AI-based predictions of actions that need to be taken or content that needs to exist preloaded. Collectively, these and other related technologies seem poised to enable a compelling set of gaming services that could drive impressive levels of revenue for the companies that tin successfully deploy them.
It's besides important to add that although strong growth in game streaming services that are less hardware dependent may imply a negative impact on gaming-specific PCs, GPUs and other game-focused hardware (because people would be able to use older, less powerful devices to run modernistic games); in fact, the contrary is likely to be truthful. Game streaming services will probable expose an even wider audience to the almost compelling games and that, in turn, will likely inspire more than people to purchase gaming-optimized PCs, smartphones, and other devices. The gaming service will give them the opportunity to play (or continue playing) those games in situations or locations where they don't accept access to their chief gaming devices.
Prediction 3: Multi-Cloud Becomes the Standard in Enterprise Computing
The early on days of deject computing in the enterprise featured prediction after prediction of a winner between public cloud vs. individual cloud and even of specific deject platforms within those environments. As we enter 2019, information technology'due south becoming abundantly clear that all those arguments were wrong headed and that, in fact, everyone won and everyone lost at the aforementioned time. After all, which of those early prognosticators would have e'er guessed that in 2018, Amazon would offer a version of Amazon Web Services (called AWS Outpost) that a company could run on Amazon-branded hardware in the company's own data center/private cloud?
Information technology turns out that, every bit with many modern engineering science developments, there's no single cloud calculating solution that works for everybody. Public, private, and hybrid combinations all take their place, and inside each of those groups, different platform options all accept a role. Yes, Amazon currently leads overall cloud computing, but depending on the blazon of workload or other requirements, Microsoft's Azure, Google's GCP (Google Cloud Platform), or IBM, Oracle, or SAP deject offerings might all make sense.
The real winner is the cloud calculating model, regardless of where or past whom it'south being hosted. Non only has cloud computing changed expectations almost functioning, reliability, and security, the DevOps software development surroundings it inspired and the container-focused application architecture information technology enabled have radically reshaped how software is written, updated, and deployed. That's why y'all meet companies shifting their focus away from the public infrastructure-based aspects of cloud computing and towards the flexible software environments information technology enables. This, in plow, is why companies have recognized that leveraging multiple cloud types and cloud vendors isn't a weakness or disjointed strategy, but actually a forcefulness that can be leveraged for futurity endeavors. With cloud platform vendors expected to work towards more interoperability (and transportability) of workloads across different platforms in 2019, it's very articulate that the multi-cloud world is here to stay.
Prediction 4: On-Device AI Will Starting time to Shift the Conversation Virtually Data Privacy
One of the to the lowest degree understood aspects of using tech-based devices, mobile applications, and other deject-based services is how much of our private, personal data is being shared in the process—oft without our fifty-fifty knowing information technology. Over the by year, withal, we've all started to go painfully enlightened of how big (and far-reaching) the problem of information privacy is. Equally a consequence, there's been an enormous spotlight placed on data handling practices employed by tech companies.
At the aforementioned time, expectations virtually technology's ability to personalize these apps and services to meet our specific interests, location, and context have as well connected to grow. People desire and expect technology to be "smarter" about them, because information technology makes the process of using these devices and services faster, more than efficient, and more compelling.
The dilemma, of course, is that to enable this customization requires the use of and access to some level of personal information, usage patterns, etc. Up until at present, that has typically meant that near whatsoever action you take or data you share has been uploaded to some type of cloud-based service, compiled and compared to information from other people, and then used to generate some kind of response that's sent back down to you. In theory, this gives y'all the kind of customized and personalized experience you want, simply at the toll of your data being shared with a whole host of different companies.
Starting in 2019, more of the information analysis piece of work could commencement existence done directly on devices, without the need to share all of information technology externally, thanks to the AI-based software and hardware capabilities becoming bachelor on our personal devices. Specifically, the idea of doing on-device AI inferencing (and even some bones on-device training) is now becoming a practical reality thanks to work by semiconductor-related companies like Qualcomm, Arm, Intel, Apple tree, and many others.
What this ways is that—if app and cloud service providers enable it (and that'due south a big if)—yous could start getting the same level of customization and personalization you've become accustomed to, but without having to share your data with the cloud. Of course, information technology isn't likely that everyone on the web is going to start doing this all at once (if they exercise it at all), so inevitably some of your data will still exist shared. Notwithstanding, if some of the biggest software and cloud service providers (think Facebook, Google, Twitter, Yelp, etc.) started to enable this, it could first to meaningfully address the legitimate information privacy concerns that have been raised over the final year or so.
Apple tree, to its credit, started talking near this concept several years back (recollect differential privacy?) and already stores things like facial recognition scans and other personally identifiable information only on individuals' devices. Over the next year, I await to see many more hardware and component makers take this to the next level by talking non just nearly their on-device information security features, but also about how onboard AI can enhance privacy. Let's hope that more software and cloud-service providers enable it as well.
Prediction 5: Tech Industry Regulation in the US Becomes Real
Regardless of whether major social media firms and tech companies enable these onboard AI capabilities or not, it's clear to me that we've reached a point in the United states social consciousness that tech companies managing all this personal data need to exist regulated. While I'll be the get-go to acknowledge that the dull-moving government regulatory process is sick-matched to the rapidly evolving tech industry, that's nevertheless not an excuse for not doing anything. As a event, in 2019, I believe the first government regulations of the tech manufacture will be put into identify, specifically effectually data privacy and disclosure rules.
It's clear from the backlash that companies like Facebook take been receiving that many consumers are very concerned with how much information has been collected not only about their online activities, but their location, and many other very specific (and very private) aspects of their lives. Despite the companies' claims that nosotros gave over most all of this information willingly (thanks to the confusingly worded and never read license agreements), mutual sense tells us that the vast majority of united states did not understand or know how the data was beingness analyzed and used. Legislators from both parties recognize these concerns, and despite the highly polarized political climate, are likely going to easily concur to some kind of limitations on the type of data that'due south collected, how it's analyzed, and how it'southward ultimately used.
Whether the US builds on Europe's GDPR regulations, the privacy laws instated in California last yr, or something entirely different remains to exist seen, merely at present that the value and potential impact of personal information has been fabricated clear, in that location'southward no doubt we will see laws that command the valued commodity that it is.
Prediction 6: Personal Robotics Will Go an Of import New Category
The idea of a "sociable" robot—i that people can accept relatively natural interactions with—has been the lore of science fiction for decades. From Lost in Space to Star Wars to WallE and across, interactive robotic machines accept been the stuff of our artistic imagination for some time. In 2019, however, I believe we will offset to encounter more applied implementations of personal robotics devices from a number of major tech vendors.
Amazon, for example, is widely rumored to be working on some type of personal assistant-based robot leveraging their Alexa voice-based digital assistant technology. Exactly what form and what sort of capabilities the device might accept are unclear, but some type of mobile (as in, able to move, non pocket-sized and lightweight!) visual smart display that as well offers mechanical capabilities (lifting, carrying, sweeping, etc.) might make sense.
While a number of companies have tried and failed to bring personal robotics to the mainstream in the contempo past, I believe a number of technologies and concepts are coming together to make the potential more than viable this year. Kickoff, from a purely mechanical perspective, the scarily realistic capabilities now exhibited by companies like Boston Dynamics bear witness how far the movement, motion, and ecology awareness capabilities have advanced in the robotics world. In add-on, the increasingly conversational and empathetic AI capabilities now being brought to voice-based digital assistants, such as Alexa and Google Assistant, demonstrate how our exchanges with machines are becoming more natural. Finally, the appeal of products like Sony's updated Aibo robotic dog also highlight the willingness that people are starting to show towards interacting with machines in new means.
In addition, robotics-focused hardware and software evolution platforms, like Nvidia'south latest Jetson AGX Xavier lath and Isaac software development kit, key advances in computer vision, as well as the growing ecosystem around the open source ROS (Robot Operating Organization) all underscore the growing body of work being washed to enable both commercial and consumer applications of robots in 2019.
Prediction 7: Cloud-Based Services Will Make Operating Systems Irrelevant
People have been incorrectly predicting the expiry of operating systems and unique platforms for years (including me back in December of 2015), but this time it'southward really (probably!) going to happen. All kidding bated, it's becoming increasingly clear every bit we enter 2019 that cloud-based services are rendering the value of proprietary platforms much less relevant for our day-to-mean solar day use. Certain, the initial interface of a device and the ways for getting admission to applications and data are dependent on the unique vagaries of each tech vendor's platform, but the real work (or real play) of what nosotros do on our devices is becoming increasingly separated from the bogus world of operating system user interfaces.
In both the commercial and consumer realms, it's now much easier to go access to what it is we want to do, regardless of the underlying platform. On the commercial side, the increasing power of desktop and application virtualization tools from the likes of Citrix and VMWare, besides as moves similar Microsoft's delivering Windows desktops from the cloud all demonstrate how much simpler information technology is to run critical business organisation applications on virtually any device. Plus, the growth of private (on-premise), hybrid, and public cloud environments is driving the creation of platform-contained applications that rely on nothing more than than a browser to role. Toss in Microsoft's determination to leverage the open-source Chromium browser rendering engine for its next version of its Edge browser, and it's clear we're rapidly moving to a globe in which the deject finally and truly is the platform.
On the consumer side, the rapid growth of platform-independent streaming services is also promoting the disappearance (or at least sublimation) of proprietary operating systems. From Netflix to Spotify to even the game streaming services mentioned in Prediction 2, successful deject-based services are building well-nigh all of their capabilities and intelligence into the cloud and relying less and less on Bone-specific apps. In fact, it volition be very interesting to see how open and platform agnostic Apple makes its new video streaming service. If they make information technology also focused on Apple OS-based device users but, they risk having a very small impact (even with their large and well-heeled installed base), specially given the strength of the competition.
Crossover work and consumer products like Office 365 are also shedding any meaningful ties to specific operating systems and instead are focused on delivering a consequent experience beyond dissimilar operating systems, screen sizes, and device types.
The concept of abstraction goes well across the OS level. New software being developed to leverage the broad range of unlike AI-specific accelerators from vendors like Qualcomm, Intel, and Arm (AI cores in their case) is existence written at a loftier-enough level to allow them to work across a very heterogeneous computing surround. While this might have a modest affect on full performance potential, the flexibility and wide support that this approach enables is well worth information technology. In fact, it's more often than not true that the more heterogeneous the computing environment grows, the less important operating systems and proprietary platforms become. In 2019, it's going to exist a very heterogenous computing world, hence my conventionalities that the time for this prediction has finally come up.
Bob O'Donnell is the founder and chief analyst of TECHnalysis Inquiry, LLC a engineering science consulting and marketplace research business firm. You tin can follow him on Twitter @bobodtech. This article was originally published on Tech.pinions.
Source: https://www.techspot.com/article/1774-tech-predictions-2019/
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